“Certainly, I expect Beijing will view this as an immediate challenge,” said Lance Gatling, president of Nexial Research and an aerospace and defense analyst.
“China’s experiences in human space are still relatively recent, and it is difficult to say how advanced they are – but putting humans on the moon is a very dangerous undertaking,” he said.
China has stepped up efforts to prepare for future moon missions.
On Thursday, three astronauts lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China and docked safely at the orbiting Tiangong space station. The astronauts are expected to spend six months aboard the space station, conducting experiments and preparing for a likely crewed lunar mission.
For any lunar mission to be a success, hundreds of thousands of things have to go right, Gatling said. In the event of a failure – especially if crew members were lost – it would be “a huge propaganda disaster”, he added.
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Japan’s ‘Moon Sniper’ rover lands, but could die within hours
Japan’s ‘Moon Sniper’ rover lands, but could die within hours
“But I expect the question will evolve around how the Chinese assess the risks, manage them and decide to move forward.”
The joint plan between Japan and the US is part of the Artemis lunar exploration program, which involves several other countries, and is designed to serve as a foundation for future space exploration.
Japan has agreed to develop and support the activities of a pressurized lunar rover. The U.S. will leverage its expanded experience in human space missions, provide flight capabilities and astronaut training and “manage the risks associated with these challenging and inspiring lunar surface missions,” according to a White House statement.
The two countries plan to jointly explore the use of materials on the lunar surface, such as water ice at the south pole, which will be crucial for sustaining human life during a lunar mission.
The agreement also includes cooperation on a Low Earth Orbit detection and tracking constellation for missiles, such as hypersonic hover missiles.
The Japanese bears come out of hibernation. And they’re in a ‘bad mood’
The Japanese bears come out of hibernation. And they’re in a ‘bad mood’
Gatling said this part of the agreement was “a big problem” because Tokyo previously opposed the Japan Space Exploration Agency participating in any military or defense project.
“The challenge of the importance of the space industry to national economic and security issues, together with the challenge from China, has convinced Japan to change its policy and explicitly embark on military space programs,” he said.
Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of science and technology policy at the University of Tokyo, said the importance of the White House deal was mainly symbolic.
“The meeting was all about ritual, but that is done to demonstrate to the rest of the watching world – especially China – that the US and Japan are all together, that they are working on AI, semiconductors and space travel,” he said . “The message is that they are looking to the future and that space and lunar exploration is crucial to that.
“They are very aware that they are competing with China in exploring the moon, so this will be the Apollo program on steroids.”
Japan is warning of a scorching summer as the country experiences ‘very worrying’ temperatures
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According to Suzuki, the idea is to have a Japanese be the first non-American to set foot on the moon “so that it is not a Chinese astronaut, because that would increase Chinese pride in their space capabilities and make them believe that they are equal are.” to the US”.
Although China has made good progress in recent years with its space projects, including having a space station in orbit, it was not ready to put an astronaut on the moon anytime soon, Suzuki said.
“They know they are still behind, and they are focused on making steady progress with the space station, a probe on the far side of the moon, and only then will they look at landing on the surface,” he said.
“An astronaut on the moon is a very difficult proposition, and they don’t want to risk lives. They still need to build their capacity before they try that.”